Whale Opens $830 M 40× BTC Long; Hayes & Novogratz Issue Bold Crypto Forecasts; Key Legislative and Tech Updates

Aggressive Whale Takes $830 M 40× BTC Position

On-chain data reveals a massive leveraged trade: a single whale opened a 40× long on 7,760 BTC—worth roughly $829.8 million—underscoring extreme bullish conviction and substantial risk appetite at current price levels.

Bitcoin Pizza Day and Trump Dinner Coincide

In a tongue-in-cheek social media post, the Trump token’s account noted that Bitcoin Pizza Day falls on the same day as President Trump’s dinner this Thursday—sparking playful speculation about crypto’s political connections.

Bitcoin’s Six Consecutive Green Weeks

According to Moralis data, Bitcoin has now closed six straight weeks in the green—last seen during the previous bull market when it achieved eight consecutive positive weekly closes.

Arthur Hayes Foresees ETH at $10K–$15K

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes projects Ethereum will surge to $10,000–$15,000, driven by:

• A sentiment reversal after prolonged skepticism

• Capital rotation from US Treasuries into gold and Bitcoin

• Expanding monetary liquidity

• Potential regulatory improvements

• A DeFi resurgence (notably EtherFi and Pendle)

• Structural financial shifts and capital controls

More Americans Own BTC Than Gold

Recent surveys show more US households now hold Bitcoin than physical gold, highlighting a major shift in retail investor preferences toward digital assets.

UTXO-SOPR Shows No Overheating Yet

The 30-day SMA of the UTXO Spend Profit Ratio sits around 99, well below the 200+ overheat threshold. While the market isn’t overheated, further price breaks will require fresh catalysts, as current “fuel” has largely been expended.

Strive’s Ambitious 75,000 BTC Reserve Plan

Strive, backed by political figure Vivek Ramaswamy, aims to amass 75,000 BTC (~$8 billion) through Mt. Gox bankruptcy claims, positioning itself as a major strategic holder.

Texas Advances Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill

The Texas House passed SB 21 in second reading, creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Fund that empowers the state to allocate public funds into Bitcoin. The bill now awaits the governor’s signature.

SEC Charges Unicoin in $100 M Fraud

The SEC indicted Unicoin and three executives for $100 million fraud—misrepresenting $3 billion in certificates sold, misleading over 5,000 investors about asset backing and SEC registration, and aggressively marketing via airports, taxis, and social media.

ETF Approval Delays Continue

• James Seyffart warns that initial SEC approvals for new crypto ETFs are unlikely before late Q3 or Q4, as regulators typically use full comment periods.

• The SEC paused decisions on XRP and Dogecoin ETF proposals (including 21Shares and Grayscale) and Bitwise’s ETH staking ETF, soliciting public feedback.

Real-World Asset and AI-Stablecoin Moves

• Theta Network became the official AI partner of FC Seoul, launching the “SeoulMate” agent to enhance fan engagement.

• Apex Group acquired a majority stake in Tokeny Solutions ($32 billion in tokenized assets), planning full integration over three years.

• Kamino Finance, with Securitize and SteakhouseFi, is launching the Apollo Global (ACRED) tokenized credit fund on Solana.

• Story rolled out Bangers, an AI music creation feature on the MUSIC platform: users generate songs via tweets, receive NFT-based rights, and pay a 1% creator tax; partners include Sony/Tencent-backed Liquid State and over 1,000 AI agents.

U.S. Treasury and Credit Market Signals

• Foreign participation in 30-year Treasury auctions has fallen to its lowest since 2020.

• Credit markets now price in a six-notch downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt to BBB, just above junk status.

• Hedge funds added $25 billion in equity shorts across the last three COT reports—the biggest build-up in at least a decade.

Conclusion:
From an $830 million whale bet to sweeping legislative advances and protocol breakthroughs, crypto markets are undergoing rapid evolution. The GENIUS Act’s Senate progress, plummeting exchange reserves, and ambitious reserve-building efforts in Texas and by private firms point to a maturing landscape. Yet investors must weigh these bullish signals against regulatory risks and macroeconomic headwinds as the sector charts its next phase.