Market & Crypto Update: Trade Deals, Reserve Laws, and Technical Signals

Trump’s “Big Trade Deal” & Tax Relief Plan

– Oval Office Trade Announcement: President Trump teased a “major trade deal” being unveiled today with a “large, respected country,” calling it the first of many future agreements (TruthSocial).
– Tax Relief Bill: He also announced an extensive tax proposal in the same address—eliminating taxes on tips, Social Security benefits, and overtime pay—describing it as the largest relief for the middle and working class (TruthSocial).

State-Level Crypto Reserve Moves

– Arizona’s Crypto Reserve Law: Arizona became the second U.S. state to enact a crypto reserve bill—but it forbids direct crypto investments, allowing only the placement of unclaimed digital assets into the reserve (The Block).
– Texas SB 21 Progress: The Texas House committee passed SB 21 to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, clearing it for a final vote in the full House (X.com/Bitcoin_Laws).

Federal & Regulatory Updates

– Powell’s Key Takeaways: Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized U.S. economic resilience but noted inflation remains above target, risks to employment and prices are growing, and it’s too early to change rates—rate cuts may be delayed until 2026, despite political calls for easing.
– OCC Guidance on Crypto: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency authorized banks to buy and sell crypto assets on behalf of clients—removing previous restrictions, so long as banks meet regulatory requirements.
– Treasury Roundtables: The U.S. Treasury announced multiple next-week roundtables with industry stakeholders to discuss crypto regulation.

Whale Activity & Market Sentiment

– 60,000 BTC Profit-Taking: Whales have sold over 60,000 BTC amid the recent rally—another sign of profit-taking at higher price levels (ali_charts on X).
– FedWatch Odds: CME’s FedWatch shows a 77.6 % probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in June.
– “Wait” Over “Act”: WSJ’s Nick Timiraos noted Powell used the word “wait” 22 times, underscoring the Fed’s reluctance to ease prematurely given tariff-driven inflation risks.

Partnerships & Ecosystem Developments

– Bitlayer × Sundial: Bitlayer and Sundial Protocol are partnering to build a Bitcoin bridge via BitVM onto Cardano, aiming to bring BTC liquidity into Cardano’s ecosystem (X.com/BitlayerLabs).
– Avalanche’s Codebase Season 4: Avalanche launched the fourth season of its Codebase incubator, which has supported 25 Web3 startups over 18 months.
– Galaxy Digital & Zodia Custody: Galaxy Digital teamed up with Zodia Custody to expand staking services across Europe (X.com/galaxyhq).

Technical & On-Chain Trading Signals

– Short-Term Trading Strategy: Analyst Axel Adler Jr recommends entering bullish trades when MVRV Z-Score < 0 and STH Breadth[%] SMA(14) < 20 %, and exiting when STH Breadth ≥ 90 % and MVRV Z-Score > 1. Current readings: MVRV 0.4; STH Breadth 44 %.
– Virtuals Protocol Anti-Manipulation: Virtuals Protocol banned wallet-to-wallet transfers, reset developer wallet Genesis points, and implemented anti-manipulation measures.

Regulatory Reversals & Pardon Rumors

– AI Export Controls Rescinded: The Trump administration revoked Biden-era AI non-proliferation rules, lifting global chip export restrictions—boosting Nvidia shares and the S&P 500—though limits on China remain intact (Bloomberg Law).
– Pardon Request Confirmation: Binance CEO CZ confirmed on a podcast that he asked President Trump for a pardon, contradicting earlier denials by Bloomberg and WSJ reports.

CONCLUSION

From high-profile trade announcements to nuanced Fed messaging, and from state crypto reserve laws to whales’ profit-taking, markets are navigating layered catalysts. Investors should blend strategic positioning with tactical safeguards—watching regulatory developments, key technical thresholds, and evolving on-chain signals to guide their next moves.