Crypto Markets Update: Weekend Rally, Fractal Cycle, and Institutional Moves

Weekend Rally in Altcoins & Layer-1s

– Broad-Based Gains: According to Santiment, memecoins, liquid-staking tokens, and major Layer-1 chains all posted double-digit market-cap growth ahead of the weekend .
– FOMO-Driven Inflows: Bitcoin saw a surge of 344,620 new wallets this week—its highest since January—pushing the price above $103,800 .

Bitcoin Fractal Cycle Points to October Peak

– Fractal Forecast: Alphractal’s team argues that Bitcoin’s market cycle remains intact and will likely crest between October 12–16, based on repeating time patterns (e.g., April vs. November cycles) across 600+ assets, macro indicators, and sentiment data .

Market Rotation to Long-Term Holders

– Short-Term Holder Exit: Michael Saylor notes that Bitcoin hasn’t yet hit $150,000 partly because short-term holders—estates, legal entities, and bankruptcy managers—have sold into strength, allowing ten-year-horizon investors to take over .

Token News & Speculation

– TRUMP Token Phase II: Donald Trump plans to announce the next phase of the TRUMP meme token during his upcoming dinner event .
– Liquidity Increase: The TRUMP team explains a 3.5 million-token transfer to exchanges was meant to boost liquidity, with all newly unlocked tokens then re-locked for 90 days .
– Pudgy Penguins Game: Pudgy Penguins launched “Pengu Clash,” a multiplayer blockchain game on TON featuring mini-games .

nstitutional & Corporate Moves

– Goldman’s ETF Buy: Goldman Sachs increased its stake in the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF by 28% in Q1—adding 30.8 million shares—to a total of $1.4 billion, while Fidelity’s holdings remained flat .
– Jump Crypto & Securitize: Jump Crypto acquired a stake in Securitize to widen client access to tokenized securities.
– Rumble’s Wallet: Rumble and Tether will launch a combined Bitcoin and stablecoin wallet in Q3 .

Regulatory & Legislative Updates

– Revised GENIUS Act: The newly amended stablecoin bill broadens U.S. regulatory reach over foreign issuers—Tether included—mandating compliance with U.S. law and expanding the definition of digital-asset providers .
– U.S. Dollar Reserves: The dollar’s share of global reserves fell to a 25-year low of 57.4%, while gold hit new highs .
– Tariff Standoff: Commerce Secretary Lutnik says there’s no chance of suspending China tariffs; the administration will keep “substantial” duties post-talks .
– Midterms & Trade: Lutnik forecasts multiple trade agreements by July 8, even as Scott Bauer of Citi warns real de-escalation on China tariffs will be gradual—likely limited to fentanyl-related duties first, then other escalation tariffs, with full relief delayed until after U.S. midterms .

Macro Sentiment & Fed Outlook

– Fed Cut Odds: CME’s FedWatch shows a 59% chance the Fed holds rates in June and begins a 25 bps cut in July.
– Put/Call Ratio: The equity put/call ratio has plunged to its lowest since January 2021, indicating a return of bullish sentiment.

Ecosystem Growth Metrics

– BNB Chain Activity: Active addresses on BNB Chain doubled from 1 million to over 2 million in the past 30 days .
– Shiba’s Wallet: Shiba Inu launched its smart multichain wallet with gasless transactions, account abstraction, multisig, and biometric security.
– Avalanche Incubator: Season 4 of Avalanche’s Codebase incubator is now open, having backed 25 startups so far.
– BitVM Bridge to Cardano: Bitlayer and Sundial Protocol are building a BitVM-based Bitcoin bridge to Cardano to import BTC liquidity.
– Galaxy & Zodia: Galaxy Digital partnered with Zodia Custody to expand staking services in Europe.

High-Profile Sentencing

– Mashinsky Jailed: Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky was sentenced to 12 years for crypto fraud, marking one of the heaviest penalties in the industry’s history .

Upcoming Events

– U.S. Vice President on Crypto: VP J.D. Vance will speak at a Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas on May 28 .

CONCLUSION

This weekend’s rally in memecoins, L1s, and liquid-staking tokens underscores robust risk appetite, even as fractal analysts eye an October Bitcoin peak. Institutional whales and major banks are deepening their exposure, while regulatory tweaks to stablecoins and tariffs add uncertainty. To navigate these trends, investors should combine strategic positioning with tactical hedges—and watch fractal cycles and key on-chain metrics for the next signal.