Crypto Market April 2025: Whale Activity, Macro Negotiations, and New Initiatives
As of early April, Bitcoin is confined between two major supply zones at $81,440 (709,000 BTC accumulated) and $86,430 (745,000 BTC accumulated). These levels coincide with large-scale holdings and may trigger the next wave of sell‑offs or buying pressure. Over the past week, whales have cut their Bitcoin positions by 30,000 BTC, while miners withdrew an additional 15,000 BTC since April 7, reflecting a drop in mining margins to 33 %. Meanwhile, large Ethereum holders have offloaded 143,000 ETH, signaling a preference to lock in profits amid uncertainty. Notably, family offices now allocate 0.62 % of assets to Ethereum ETPs versus 0.13 % to Bitcoin ETPs, highlighting a shift of institutional bets toward ETH.Technical Picture and Whale Activity
Political Negotiations and Macroeconomic Risks
Crypto investors are closely watching U.S.–Europe dynamics. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has traveled to Washington to meet Donald Trump on trade issues, while Trump separately reported progress in talks with a Japanese delegation. Any tariff or trade‑policy developments immediately reverberate through risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Current U.S. tariffs are projected to push retail prices up by 3.6 %, cut gross margins by 16 %, and reduce operating profits by 30 %, intensifying the shift toward defensive assets.
Financial Indicators: Recession, Gold, Bankruptcies
Polymarket data shows the probability of a U.S. recession has eased from 65 % to 55 %, though market tension remains high.
Gold’s trend strength is at its highest level since the 1970s, surpassing both the dot‑com bubble and the Great Recession, underscoring its safe‑haven appeal.
U.S. large‑company bankruptcies surged to 188 in Q1 2025—the highest quarterly tally since 2010—while traders are paying a positive premium to hedge against a dollar decline for the first time in five years.
Institutional Initiatives and Security Risks
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VanEck will launch the NODE ETF on May 14, investing in 30–60 digital‑economy stocks focused on crypto‑related companies.
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The SEC will host an April 25 roundtable on custody issues, featuring leading custodians.
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Cardano Foundation partnered with Brazil’s PUC‑Rio to deploy blockchain solutions in the energy sector.
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ENS warns of a sophisticated Google‑based phishing attack using Sites and OAuth to steal credentials.
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Public mining firms sold over 40 % of mined BTC in March, the highest since October 2024.
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Wormhole distributed its first staking rewards, available through July 2025.
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The White House published an article claiming U.S. technologies now “manipulate time and space,” adding further intrigue.
Trader’s Analysis and Recommendations
This hybrid environment combines technical stagnation in BTC/ETH with political uncertainty and institutional growth.
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Bitcoin: Key range $81,400–$86,400. A break below or above may target $78,000 / $74,000 or climb above $88,000.
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Ethereum: Family‑office inflows and ETP demand support the up‑side, but whale sell‑offs and liquidation risk persist.
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Macro factors (trade policy, tariffs, recession) will drive capital flows in and out of risk assets. Diversification into gold and stablecoins is prudent.
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New ETFs and infrastructure events from VanEck and the SEC build a stronger long‑term foundation, yet short‑term focus must remain on geopolitical and regulatory news.
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Security risks (phishing, limited transparency) demand rigorous custody practices and wallet controls.
News
Bitcoin Enters Price Discovery as Whale Trades and Macro Signals Roar
Bitcoin hits new all-time highs eyeing $116K–$148K levels, a 40× whale long nets $40M, Fed’s $50B self-buy sparks hyperinflation warnings, and analysts see BTC at $120K+ soon.
Whale Opens $830 M 40× BTC Long; Hayes & Novogratz Issue Bold Crypto Forecasts; Key Legislative and Tech Updates
A BTC whale takes a $830 M 40× long, Bitcoin logs six consecutive green weeks, the GENIUS Act advances in the Senate, and Arthur Hayes predicts ETH at $10K–$15K as Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade nears.
GENIUS Act Advances in Senate as Crypto Markets Rally on Regulatory Clarity and Network Milestones
The GENIUS Act moves to full Senate debate ahead of Memorial Day, while Bitcoin and altcoins benefit from reduced exchange reserves, protocol upgrades, and bullish forecasts from industry leaders.
Bitcoin Closes at $106,500, Dollar Falls After Moody’s Downgrade, and Hayes & Novogratz Forecast Crypto’s Next Moves
Bitcoin hit a record weekly close of $106,500; the dollar slid to 100.85 after Moody’s downgrade; Arthur Hayes forecasts a summer altseason and $250K BTC, Michael Novogratz sees a $22 trillion crypto market.
Key Crypto and Market Updates: Arrests, Network Milestones, and DeFi Developments
Ex-Binance exec arrested for $15M fraud; Avalanche hits 1.95M active addresses; over 1M ETH withdrawn from exchanges; Fusaka devnet on May 26; MetaMask adds Solana; consumer sentiment at 43-year low.
