Crypto & Macro Trends at week

Extreme Pessimism About the U.S. Dollar

Fund managers are currently the most bearish on the U.S. dollar in over two decades—sentiment that historically correlates with Bitcoin rallies .

BTC Leverage Data: More Closed Than Open Positions

Over the past six months, net leverage in Bitcoin has turned negative: Bitget closed $7.4 billion in positions, CME $3.9 billion, while Gate.io saw +$3.2 billion. Such negative Open Interest Delta often precedes sizable BTC price surges .

GENIUS Act Spurs Stablecoin Sector Growth

The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act with broad bipartisan backing (68–30), setting a federal framework requiring 1:1 backing with liquid assets, monthly disclosures, AML/KYC rules, and audits for issuers over $50 billion. Citi and others forecast the stablecoin market could grow to $1.6–3.7 trillion by 2030, boosting demand for U.S. Treasuries

Ohio Legalizes Blockchain and Crypto Payments

Ohio has enacted pro-crypto legislation allowing mining, self-custody of digital assets, and prohibiting local bans on crypto payments—marking a major step in state-level crypto acceptance.

DTCC Lists VanEck’s Spot SOL ETF

The DTCC has added VanEck’s spot Solana ETF to its active listing pipeline, signaling institutional belief in Solana’s robustness as both an asset and on-chain infrastructure.

Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin at $250,000

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes now forecasts that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2025. He cites government debt dynamics and liquidity measures, warns of a possible sharp correction before the rally, and dismisses quantum computing as a threat

JPMorgan Prepares Institutional Token “JPMD”

JPMorgan is developing JPMD—a tokenized digital deposit for institutional clients, offering real-time settlement and functioning as a corporate-stage stablecoin.

China’s Central Bank Endorses Blockchain

The Governor of the People’s Bank of China highlighted that blockchain—particularly stablecoins and smart contracts—enables cost-efficient, transparent international payments, though stronger regulation is essential.

Ondo’s Global Markets Alliance

Ondo Finance launched a Global Markets Alliance with Solana Foundation, Fireblocks, Bitget, Trust Wallet, and others to establish standardized frameworks for tokenized securities.

Eyenovia Invests $50 Million in Hyperliquid (HYPE)

Biotech firm Eyenovia announced a $50 million investment in Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens from its corporate treasury, marking a strategic move into crypto reserves.

Top Tokens by New Address Growth

Santiment data shows leading weekly growth in new addresses for WETH (+648 %), WBT (+575 %), WBTC (+402 %), BIT (+175 %), UNI (+174 %), VIRTUAL (+120 %), among others.

Pumpfun Accounts Restored on X

Following a mass account suspension, Pumpfun and its founder’s accounts were reinstated on the X platform, alleviating regulatory uncertainty around meme coins.

ZachXBT Warns of a “Criminal Supercycle”

Analyst ZachXBT highlights extensive crypto money laundering—estimated $5–10 billion on Tron alone—suggesting that systemically weak regulation is allowing illicit flows to flourish.

Macroeconomic Context

Global Equities Signal “Golden Cross”

Global equity indices have formed a bullish “Golden Cross”—a potential indicator of roughly 43 % gains over two years

Lower Capital Requirements for U.S. Banks

U.S. regulators plan to reduce capital reserve mandates by 1.5 percentage points to energize Treasury market activity (~$29 trillion), though some analysts warn of added systemic risk .

Record U.S. Interest Payments

Interest on the U.S. national debt now consumes nearly 20 % of federal revenues—the highest level since the early 1990s—raising long-term fiscal concerns.

Conclusion

The convergence of macroeconomic and crypto trends—dollar pessimism, stablecoin regulation, leveraged position dynamics, institutional tokenization, and global geopolitical uncertainty—paints a complex but fertile landscape. Bitcoin may be setting up for a rebound, supported by macro signals and regulatory maturation, though geopolitical developments could quickly shift the balance.