Artur Hayes’ “Fatty Fatty Boom Boom”: How U.S. Capital Controls Could Send Bitcoin to $1 Million

Economic Imbalance as “Obesity”

Hayes likens the U.S. trade deficit—which forces foreign capital surpluses to fund American assets—to an unhealthy weight gain:

• The current account deficit is financed by a capital account surplus, meaning foreigners buy U.S. stocks, bonds, and real estate.

• Tariffs intended to correct this imbalance simply raise consumer prices and spur sourcing via third countries, making them politically untenable and economically inefficient.

A 2% Annual Tax on Foreign Capital

Instead of tariffs, Hayes proposes:

• 2% annual levy on $\$33trillion$ of foreign-held U.S. assets, generating $660 billion per year—enough to eliminate income tax for 90% of American households.

• If foreign investors refuse to pay and withdraw capital, the dollar would weaken and exporters’ currencies would strengthen, restoring U.S. export competitiveness without tariffs.

Anticipated Consequences & U.S. Response

A mass capital flight would push down U.S. asset prices, triggering policy measures to stabilize markets:

1. Halt Quantitative Tightening and resume QE.

2. Relax bank capital rules for holding Treasuries.

3. Increase government bond buybacks.

4. Shift issuance from long-term to short-term Treasuries.

Signs are already evident: the Taiwanese and South Korean won are strengthening, and U.S. 10-year yields are rising. Hayes warns that yields approaching 4.5–5.0% would force a Fed intervention.

Bitcoin as a Cross-Border Capital Vehicle

In a fragmented financial landscape, Bitcoin offers unique advantages:

• Permissionless cross-border transfers without the logistical challenges of gold.

• Trump administration’s crypto-friendly stance—exempting gold from tariffs and rolling back restrictive rules—underscores support for both safe-haven and digital assets.

Hayes forecasts that if 10% ($3.3 trillion) of foreign-held U.S. assets migrate into Bitcoin, BTC could soar to $1 million by 2028.

U.S. Treasuries in Decline vs. Bitcoin & Gold

Since 2021, U.S. Treasuries have lost 64% of their value relative to gold and 84% relative to Bitcoin. This ongoing devaluation of fixed-income assets compounds the appeal of decentralized, hard-capped stores of value.

Selected Altcoin Conclusions: Pendle & Ether.fi

Hayes highlights two projects with real users, revenues, and token distributions:

• Pendle is poised to dominate the crypto fixed-income trading space with innovative yield-tokenization primitives.

• Ether.fi—dubbed the “American Express of crypto”—focuses on servicing high-net-worth holders with premium staking and custody services.

Tactical Flexibility Advised

Despite a $1 million long-term Bitcoin target, Hayes cautions that the path will be non-linear. He recommends dynamic tactics—including short positions—when trends show clear reversal signals.

Supporting Views from JPMorgan & Blockstream

• JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin will outperform gold in H2 2025, driven by corporate treasury buys (MicroStrategy adding $42 billion) and state reserves in New Hampshire and Arizona. The authors note a zero-sum dynamic between currency devaluation and Bitcoin appreciation (+18% BTC vs. –8% gold since April).

• Adam Back (Blockstream) likewise contends BTC could reach $500 000–$1 million this cycle given robust institutional inflows.

Confidence in Tether’s Backing

Cantor Fitzgerald’s CEO Brandon Luten personally verified Tether’s reserves, debunking rumors of inadequate backing—an important signal for stablecoin trust.

Major Institutional Moves & Security Alerts

• Addentax Group Corp plans to acquire up to 8 000 BTC (~$800 million), potentially via new equity issuance.

• Zunami Protocol was hacked, losing $500 K in zunUSD and zunETH.

• CoinMarketCap launched CMC Launch, a pre-TGE platform; its first partner is the perpetual DEX Aster (supporting BNB Chain & Arbitrum).

• Synthetix has begun daily buybacks of up to $1 million to restore its sUSD peg back to $1 (currently trading near $0.93).

Global Regulatory & Adoption Trends

• Brazil’s central bank proposes new stablecoin rules, restricting transfers to wallets managed by non-Brazilian entities.

• Jack Dorsey advocates for SMBs to act as their own banks using Square, Bitcoin, CashApp, and Bitkey.

• MetaMask co-founder Dan Finlay says a native token remains under “serious consideration.”

• Animoca Brands made a strategic investment in UXLINK, aiming to build a Web3 social model via AI Growth Agents and a “PayFi” ecosystem bridging crypto with real-world payments.

• Sui updated mainnet to v1.48.2 and protocol to v82, adding TLS support for validator connections and trace log compression.

• Texas SB 21 (Bitcoin reserve bill) heads for a decisive vote.

• Daily new wallet growth last month: BTC +309 000, ETH +112 000, USDT +36 400, XRP +3 500.

• Despite price gains, retail interest in Bitcoin (per Google Trends and app rankings) is at a six-month low.

• Fund-manager sentiment remains deeply bearish.

• Hedge funds scooped up global equities on Monday at the second-fastest pace in at least five years.

CONCLUSION

Artur Hayes’ provocative proposal to tax foreign-held U.S. assets rather than impose tariffs lays out a dramatic path that could reshape capital flows—and propel Bitcoin to unprecedented heights. Combined with major institutional reserve builds, selective altcoin highlights, and evolving regulatory frameworks, the coming years promise intense volatility and opportunity. Investors should balance strategic long-term convictions with tactical flexibility to navigate the nonlinear journey ahead.