Analyst Overview: What’s Driving the Current Bitcoin and Altcoin Rally

$35 B Inflows Power the Rally

More than $35 billion flowed into the crypto market over the past three weeks—an influx that historically coincides with sustained uptrends for both Bitcoin and altcoins.

TOTAL2 Breaks Out of Five-Month Wedge

The TOTAL2 index (all crypto excluding Bitcoin) has broken out of a five-month-long descending expanding wedge. This technical breakout signals renewed strength for the broader market and sets the stage for an altcoin rally beyond BTC.

Ethereum’s Key Levels—$3,100 Resistance & $2,233 Support

Analysts identify critical zones for Ethereum:

• Resistance at $3,100, the level whose breach could accelerate gains.

• Support at $2,233, essential to hold for bulls to maintain momentum.

Liquidity Rotation into Altcoins Marks Altseason Start

USDT market-cap is rising even as USDT dominance and BTC dominance decline—evidence that capital is rotating into altcoins. This is a classic early altseason indicator, expected to accelerate in June.

Altcoin vs. Bitcoin Spread Oscillator at 38%

The composite Bitcoin Market Performance & Altcoin Spread oscillator—tracking ETH+SOL returns relative to BTC—recently crossed its 30-day MA above the 50-day MA and hit 38%. Historically, readings above 50% mark full altseason; only 12% remains to trigger that signal.

Institutional Demand Drives BTC While Korean Retail Stays Quiet

As Bitcoin nears its all-time high, low spot volumes on Korean exchanges highlight subdued retail activity. Institutions are propping up prices; retail typically jumps in late-stage rallies, which can signal an approaching market top.

U.S.–Saudi Trade Deal Boosts Risk Appetite

A $600 billion U.S.–Saudi trade package, cutting tariffs, helped the S&P 500 recover from a 17% slide last month to flat year-to-date. Cooling U.S. inflation and cautious Fed guidance now price in only two rate cuts in 2025—likely in September.

$5 B Daily BTC Spot Volume Spike

The 7-day SMA of the BTC spot volume delta turned positive, peaking around $5 billion—a level only seen a few times this year. This confirms genuine net-buying conviction on spot markets and supports moves above $100 000.

Bullish “Rise–Pause–Squeeze” Structure

Rather than parabolic runs, Bitcoin has followed a classic “rise, pause, squeeze” pattern. Each advance is followed by tight consolidation without extreme overbought conditions—structures that typically precede strong follow-on moves.

Short-Term Holders Taking Profits, Yet SOPR Remains Controlled

Since May 8, short-term holders have realized gains—SOPR rose above 1 at prices over $99 000. Although SOPR near 1.03 often signals rising sell pressure, that hasn’t materialized—suggesting the market still has room to run.

CONCLUSION

Large capital inflows, technical breakouts, strong institutional demand, and measured profit-taking create a solid foundation for further Bitcoin gains and an altcoin rally. To position effectively, watch key support/resistance zones, the altcoin spread oscillator, and macroeconomic catalysts that could accelerate or temper this bull cycle.